The Future of Media #81: Get Out Your Crystal Ball

Which of the developments listed above do you think will have the most influence? Is there a new technology you have been following that you think will have more effect? Discuss it in your post.

I have not followed new developments in technology, so I am a poor predictor of what will have influence in the future. I agree that newspapers as we know it are disappearing. Movie theaters are disappearing. Television networks are disappearing. Some kind of Internet-based combination of it all will probably take their place, but what will determine the winner is what can make money for someone. Commercials and print ads and lobby popcorn won't pay the bills any more.


Predictions about the future are a big part of the SirsiDynix Institute's webcast by Helene Blowers of the Columbus Metropolitan Library called "From Libraries to Lifebraries." She mentions three trends that will have major impact on traditional libraries: 1) the rise of the e-book; 2) the increase in mobile communications (60% of the world's population have cellphone subscriptions; smart phones exceed laptops and PCs as wi-fi connection devices); and 3) the disappearing of print (especially newspapers). I recommend that all HCPL staff watch this webcast as a motivator for embracing change. The most important slide for me was the "Extinction Timeline," predicting when various aspects of modern life will become insignificant in people's lives. Newspapers are on the timeline with a date of about 2049, but LIBRARIES are on the timeline with a date of about 2019!
Are you an early adopter of every gadget?

I consider myself more of a "middle" adopter of new technology. I want to make sure something will "catch-on" before I jump in. I also want competitors to move into the market and bring the price down. I would probably be faster to get new things, except for the high price tag. For example, my bulky TV works too well to just junk in favor of a sleek new high-definition flat panel TV.

Do you have fond memories of technologies from the past? What is your favorite media gadget or which outdated format do you miss the most? Describe it in your post.

Following the developments of technology has been a wild ride. I have been around long enough to have witnessed first-hand most of the evolution of computers. My first direct contact was loading punched cards coded in the Fortran language into a mainframe computer that filled a large room. My first remote access was via paper punched tape on a teletype machine. Our first home computer was an Apple II. That is probably my favorite memory, learning to use that machine with my kindergartener son. This was followed by a range of IBM desktops (with the Intel 8088, 80286, 80486) and then a series of Dell Laptops. I love my laptop, and can't imagine being without it.

My current most favorite media gadget, though, has to be my iPhone. It is mobile and brings so many "gadgets" together through its apps: e-mail, e-book reader, camera, GPS maps, calendar, Internet, game machine, alarm clock, etc. If that is what the future will look like, bring it on!